What to expect from this year's model Rangers? Ah, the perennial question. Perhaps the only thing we know for sure is that this franchise will somehow confound all expectations. Coming out of the lockout, they were routinely predicted to finish out of the playoffs yet again and ended up being one of the best teams in the league until they ran out of gas after Henrik Lundqvist won the gold medal at the Olympics. Expectations were flipped on their head the next season despite Jaromir Jagr's iffy shoulder, but the results were inconsistent until Sean Avery joined the team in mid-year. The addition of Scott Gomez and Chris Drury in 2007 was supposed to get the team past the second round -- instead it was a fight for their playoff lives.
Last year's massive makeover left everyone with nothing but a bunch of ifs, which all seemed to be going in a positive direction in a record breaking month of October but which all broke the other way by the end of the season, with the coaching staff fired and more than half the team starting their trek through the revolving door out of town. So forgive us if we have little to offer after this year's makeover but another bunch of ifs. There's only one thing I know for sure -- the last time I took a step back from the team to tend to burgeoning business and family obligations, the Rangers were coming off a dismal year in which they failed to make the playoffs, and they promptly proceeded to win the Stanley Cup. So maybe it's just me and this is going to be The Year.
But really, there's little mystery about how this season is going to break. If Marian Gaborik stays healthy and Henrik Lundqvist isn't beaten down by having to singlehandedly keep other teams from scoring, the Rangers will do well -- maybe not win the Cup, but will generally be an entertaining team that produces many more wins than losses. But if Gaborik goes down or is even hampered by nagging injuries, or if Lundqvist cannot consistently prop up what would be a porous defense even if they concentrated primarily on defense rather than John Tortrella's attack game, then fasten your seat belts, Ranger fans -- we're in for a bumpy ride. These are two elite players, among the very best at what they do, and they can carry the team a long way. But they cannot do it on their own, and there are a good number of ifs left over even if they do their part.
Up front, there are nothing but ifs. Chris Higgins has to rebound from an injury-riddled season too, and even if healthy, he has to ramp up to front-line scoring threat if he's going to be the first line left winger. He stands a good chance of doing just that if he can play the role of garbageman to whatever Gaborik cannot put into the net himself. Brandon Dubinsky will have to step up his point production as well, and he too stands a good chance of doing so if he maintains his work ethic while centering Gaborik. Vinny Prospal, regardless of what position he plays, will have to continue his career pattern of good season, bad season, due for a good one after a bad one last year. Ales Kotalik has to find consistency at age 30 -- or he has to at least help revive a perennially moribund power play with his cannon shot from the point. Sean Avery has to stay physically and mentally healthy without losing the edge that makes him what he is, Ryan Callahan has to just keep grinding away like he always does, and Chris Drury, well, we need the real Chris Drury to please stand up.
Speaking of ifs, just how well can the Rangers do with a defense that is iffy at best? Even the best of the bunch, Marc Staal, has to step up to the role of number one stopper while meeting Tortorella's demand of adding offense. As good as Staal is, as good as he can be, he still has to prove that he can match up against the league's best every night. If Dan Girardi is going to be his defense partner, he will have to be an order of magnitude better than he was in pre-season -- a solid second pair defender, I'm not sure there is even a valid if that can be attached to him as top pair D. But he will have to try, because the duo earning first pair money will have their hands full just trying to be a productive second pair. Wade Redden and Michal Rozsival will munch up cap dollars -- can they munch points and opposing forwards as well? And what precious few cap dollars remain will be used to sign Alexei Semenov, heir apparent to Marek Malik and Dmitri Kalinin.
Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of this team will be how well an enticing group of young players do, if given a chance to contribute -- always a big if in Rangerland. It looks like the Rangers will find their power play quarterback of the present and future somewhere between Matt Gilroy and Mike Del Zotto, both of whom won jobs in pre-season with eye-opening performances. But can they play defense in the NHL for 82 games? Will the Rangers even let them once they start hitting the inevitable bumps in that long road? At forward, Artem Anisimov was alternately electrifying and electrocuted during pre-season -- how much of a chance will he get to do the former, especially if he experiences too much of the latter once the games start counting? He will not be able to do much of anything as fourth line center -- he needs more of a chance than that, especially since he will get little help from his wingers (unless they end up being countrymen Enver Lisin and/or Evgeny Grachev somewhere down the road).
In net is where the Rangers seem to be most set, with Lundqvist returning along with steady understudy Steve Valiquette. Lundqvist has always had to erase the myriad mistakes of his defense. But they haven't gotten any better and will be taking more chances under Tortorella, so he will have to show even more fortitude than ever. Valiquette too, if he's going to get more playing time in this Olympic year, Lundqvist expected to be Sweden's starter in their gold medal defense. How the Rangers have improved themselves by flipping out one of the league's best penalty killing duos (Blair Betts and Fred Sjostrom) and a popular and effective young enforcer (Colton Orr) in favor of the tall trio of the reviled Donald Brashear, the ineffective Aaron Voros, and a non-entity in Brian Boyle remains to be seen. It may not even matter much if they rarely play, unless they take away ice time from young players who have some upside.
Then there is the new coach, sinking his teeth into this team from the start, and doing so under the vigilant eye of a massive media contingent with whom he is frequently at odds. A lot of what Tortorella does with the media is an attempt to manipulate them to his own ends -- for example, he knows full well why Ranger fans boo Brashear, but it's more productive to protect his player by blaming the media than the paying customers. But -- and here's another big if -- he is simply going to have to win if his act is going to work both in the dressing room and in the press room. All of his machinations will appear masterful if the results are there -- or they will backfire loudly if fails to get more out of the likes of Redden and Drury and a whole new cast of characters than his predecessor did with the tools Glen Sather gave him to work with.
In the end, so many faces change both on and behind the bench, so many ifs are asked year in and year out, but one thing remains constant -- the GM, completing a decade in New York with just two playoff series wins to show for himself over the first eight seasons. There's the biggest if of them all.
In the news: Del Zotto making the team, for at least nine games, was the story in Newsday, NYR.com, Ranger Rants, Rink Rap, Blue Notes, and Blueshirts Blog. More from the Post on Higgins, the Record on Girardi, the Post on Anisimov, and Ranger Rants on this and that. The Record begins its season preview as well. On the farm, Hartford cut down to its final roster size -- see analysis in Beyond the Blueshirts and HF Rangers Blog. Chris Doyle, the Ranger draftee who could not attend training camp for medical reasons, has had personal problems this season, having been suspended for tripping a linesman and now having spent a night in jail for assaulting two women in a bar -- see the PEI Guardian and CBC for more on him. Fellow Q prospect Ryan Bourque sustained a concussion in his most recent game (see Prospect Park and Le Journal) -- and more prospect news from Prospect Park.
Some programming notes: This season's first issue of Blueshirt Bulletin is going to press this week -- look for it in your mailboxes next week. The new Blueshirt Bulletin web site is days away from going live -- look for news at BB.com, where you'll find an announcement about Ranger Nation becoming the official BB bulletin board. I will be traveling from Thursday through Sunday, so expect only a post of two during that time in this space.